Traders Increase Bets on Fed Rate Cuts as Leadership Speculation Grows
Polymarket data reveals 27% of traders now anticipate two rate cuts this year, reflecting heightened expectations for monetary easing. CME Group figures show the probability of a March cut has surged to 23%, up from 18.4% days earlier, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point reduction.
The shift comes amid speculation that incoming Federal Reserve leadership may pivot toward looser policy, despite current policymakers' cautious stance. Analyst Nic Purkin notes Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as Fed Chair has created market turbulence, with precious metals declining in late January as investors digested his hawkish reputation.